The Official Newsletter of TheBlackMarket.com for November 2008

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ONE MAN'S OPINION

Bailout
Last month the US announced a $700 billion "bailout" of the financial industry, on top of an $85 billion cash infusion to AIG. The stock markets responded by having their worst drop in a week in history. The experts keep saying they can't figure out why the markets are cratering. It's pretty simple.
First, the public does not understand what the bailout is. All we hear is that it's going to cost at least $700 billion. Last I heard, the bailout plan was over 400 pages, and included a lot of additional spending on unrelated issues just to get enough votes to pass it. I didn't read it, nor do I think a lot of the people who signed it actually read the whole thing. For all the various tips tricks and strategies, the stock market is at it's core a measure of confidence in some assets. By putting $700 billion of our tax dollars into it doesn't give people confidence because they still do not understand it.
Second, the stock market is too intertwined, as we found out in the crash of 1987 when all the computer programs kicked in and contributed to the crash. It is still so. Here are 2 scenarios that have contributed to the collapse:

1) a shareholder in a mutual fund sees the value of his shares dropping like crazy, so he decides to sell his shares and cash out. The fund manager may not have enough cash on hand to give to the shareholder, so he has to sell some of the stocks in his holdings to pay off the shareholder. He may choose to sell stocks that are or are not doing well. Either way, the fact that he is selling them will cause downward pressure on their price. The drop in price will cause more shareholders of more mutual funds to start cashing out and the whole process starts again. It's like a long, slow run on the bank. If everyone went to the bank on the same day and closed their accounts, banks would become insolvent in about 15 minutes.

2) An investor has bought a lot of stock on margin and the stock has dropped in value. So the investor's broker tells him that he has to keep his ratios of the stocks he bought with his own money and those he bought with borrowed margin money at a certain level. He either has to deposit more cash, or sell some stocks to raise cash. If he has no cash, he sells stocks, or his broker sells them for him. Again, the selling puts downward pressure on the stock prices.

I'm not saying these are the only reasons the stock markets have cratered, but they contribute. What can be done to stop this? Beats me.
Understand this, at it's core, the stock market is all about gambling. Different people have different information about companies and many people think they have the only magic sphincter that great investing ideas can be pulled out of. Everyone thinks their information is better than everyone else's. And everyone is trying to outthink everyone else.

Proof That We Just Don't Learn
A month ago, gas prices were at the $4/gallon level and many people were cutting back on their driving to save gas. Now that gas prices have dropped close to 50%, all that has gone out the window and people are resuming their previous driving levels. Brilliant. Sooner or later, probably later, we'll learn.

Joe The Plumber
Everybody knows this guy and his spectacular rise to fame. He's now considering running for Congress in 2010. The problem with our government is that we keep lowering the bar. Frankly, I don't know anything about "Joe The Plumber", but anyone who considers running for elected office just because they were mentioned 20+ times in a debate, well, let's just say I wouldn't vote for him.

The Election
This will be the last issue of this BlackMailer before the population of the United States chooses either its first non-white President or first non-male Vice President. What's more important than who you vote for is that you do vote. Our democratic system, such that it is, does not work if you do not vote. If you decide that you do not like any of the candidates and to protest that, you won't cast a vote for any of them, you are in fact casting a vote for the one you like the least.

Our Finest Hour, Our Biggest Shame
On the one hand, it can be said that America has really come a long way when a non-white male is even being considered for the top 2 most important jobs in the country. On the other hand, it can be said that America really hasn't come far enough when there have been so many subtle and blatant accusations about racism and sexism. According to the opinion polls, a majority of Americans of all colors believe that Barack Obama is ready and qualified to be the next President of the United States. What is ironic is that if it were not for the widely held negative opinion of the current administration, there is a good chance that Obama would not have been so successful in his campaign. Based on the polls, if Obama in fact does lose this election, it will mean that a lot of people, I mean a whole lot of people will have been lying for the last 2-3 months. That says more about this country than any election results ever could.

Endorsement
Now, having said all that, I'm voting for Barack Obama. My endorsement will not, nor will I attempt to, rise to the eloquence of Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack, but I will give 10 reasons for my vote.

1. McCain's bailout plan includes buying mortgages at face value from banks. The banks who made these bad loans would be made whole and we are left holding the bag. He doesn't want us giving banks money in return for equity, but he doesn't mind us giving banks money in return for bad mortgages.
2. The John McCain of 1999-2000 would have gotten my vote had he won the Republican nomination. He was a maverick. But after the Republican party pulled so many dirty tricks to destroy his campaign, and he crawled back to them, going so far as to endorse the 2004 nomination of President Bush, I lost all respect for him. I don't like Joe Lieberman, but I give him props for realizing the democrats in Connecticut didn't want him and leaving the party.
3. Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin what newspapers she reads. That was a month ago. She still has not answered the question. How can you expect a VP to govern if she can't answer that simple question? My preteen son can answer that question. And I wouldn't want him a heartbeat away from the Presidency either
4. Sarah Palin made up stories of Russian jets in US airspace, at least according to NORAD.
5. McCain wants to drill our way out of high gas prices, even though the experts have concluded that the result will be $.03-$.04/gallon years from now. To keep pushing this and acting like we'll have $.99/gallon gas by Christmas is disingenuous. George Bush said it best, "We are addicted to oil". If you have a crackhead in the family, the solution is not to look for more crack.
6. "... that one."
7. "... the health of the mother"
8. I don't know many people in the military, but of those I do know and their families, they care more about their loved ones coming home alive, not necessarily coming home "with honor" from a war that many see as dishonorable.
9. I don't think Sarah Palin is stupid, I do think she's very far out of her league at this point in her political career. I think she was chosen to go after Hillary Clinton supporters, the "PUMAS". I've said it's just as bad to vote for a candidate because of their race as it is to vote for a candidate because of their sex.
10. Sarah Palin is against sex education in schools as well as abortions for any reason. She also has a teenage pregnant daughter. Maybe if sex education had been taught in school (or home), her daughter, who was obviously out practicing sex, would have done so from a more knowledgeable perspective. Newsflash, whether you talk about sex or not, kids are going to practice. And practice makes perfect.
    

I would like to hear from a McCain-Palin supporter and know what it is they see in that team that I'm missing. Any any of you are out there, please respond. And if you do, don't tell me why you don't like Barack Obama, tell my why you do like John McCain.

If He Wins
If Barack Obama does win on Tuesday, as soon as any of the major networks declare him the winner and right before you call everyone you know, flick the lights on and off several times in your house. Why? No reason other than it's a lot less intrusive to your neighbors than running up and down the street singing "Hip Hop Hooray, Hooooo, Heyyyy!"

But this is just one man's opinion. Got one of your own? Hit me back at OneMan@TheBlackMarket.com

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